EXPLAINED | Permutations on who can still qualify for ODI World Cup 2023 SF's including Pakistan, Afghanistan

The ODI World Cup 2023 has reached the business end as teams look to book their place in the semifinal of the tournament. Saturday (Nov 5) saw a decisive day in the semifinal race after New Zealand lost despite putting 401 on the board in Bengaluru. However, with rain spoilsport, it was Pakistan who won the contest on the DLS method to keep their hopes alive. On the other hand, England’s defeat to Australia saw the end of their semifinal bid. With several teams still in the hunt for a place in the last four, here are all the equations and permutations explained.

What is the present scenario?

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As things stand, Afghanistan are in pole position to reach the semifinals as they occupy sixth place but have two matches to play compared to New Zealand and Pakistan. Afghanistan currently have eight points from seven matches while Pakistan and New Zealand have eight points from eight matches. Net Run Rate (NRR) can still be decisive in determining the final position.

Sri Lanka and the Netherlands occupy seventh and eighth place in the league standings standings and still have an outside chance of making the semis if certain equations go their way. Both Sri Lanka and the Netherlands have four points each from seven matches but with negative NRR.

What needs to happen for Pakistan?

Babar Azam’s men looked dead and buried when they lost to South Africa and condemned them to their fourth consecutive defeat. While the chief selector Inzamam-ul-Haq resigned from his office for poor show, the decision might have come too early. As things stand Pakistan need to win their final league stage match against already eliminated England on Saturday (Nov 11). However, they will also need a helping hand from Australia or South Africa to prevent Afghanistan from reaching 10 or more points.

• Pakistan need to beat England in case New Zealand and Afghanistan lose at least one match
• In case New Zealand win against Sri Lanka, Pakistan need to win by 130 runs or more provided Afghanistan lose at least one match
• Pakistan can still qualify for semis even if they lose against England provided Afghanistan, New Zealand lose by huge margins while Sri Lanka don’t attend better Net Run Rate (NRR)

What needs to happen for New Zealand?

On their worse run of form, the Kiwis have lost close contests recently despite scoring 401/6 and 383/9 against Pakistan and Australia respectively. Their earlier defeats to India and South Africa also put a break in their momentum, but they have still seen their NRR on the positive side of the scale. As things stand, they can only win in their final league match and await the result of Pakistan and England while also keeping an eye on Afghanistan.

• New Zealand need to beat Sri Lanka to stand in pole position to reach the semis while hope Afghanistan lose at least one match
• In case New Zealand beat Sri Lanka, Pakistan should not beat England by more than 130 runs while hope Afghanistan lose at least one match
• New Zealand can still qualify for semis even if they lose against Sri Lanka provided Afghanistan, Pakistan lose by huge margins while Sri Lanka don’t attend better Net Run Rate (NRR) with eight points

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What needs to happen for Afghanistan?

The equation for Afghanistan is simple, wins in their remaining two matches of the ODI World Cup will see them attain 12 points and book a place in the semifinal. However, it will be an uphill task considering their matches are against Australia and South Africa. However, defeats in both matches could see them miss out on the semifinal spot.

• Afghanistan need to beat Australia and South Africa to guarantee a place in the semifinals
• In case New Zealand beat Sri Lanka and Pakistan beat England, Afghanistan need to win at least one match by big margin or win both matches

What needs to happen for Sri Lanka, Netherlands?

The equation for Sri Lanka and the Netherlands is straightforward, defeat in any of their remaining matches will see them get eliminated. The Netherlands play already eliminated England and already qualified for semis India in their remaining matches. Sri Lanka take on Bangladesh on Tuesday while New Zealand await them in the final league match. Both teams need to win by big margins while also hoping the trio of New Zealand, Pakistan, and Afghanistan lose all their matches.

Currently, Pakistan’s NRR is +0.036 while New Zealand are above them with +0.398, both on the same points. Afghanistan (-0.330), Sri Lanka (-1.162), and the Netherlands ((-1.398) have negative NRR which could be a decisive factor in the final outcome. Interestingly, even if teams miss out on a semifinal berth, a race for top seven finish is also on with teams qualifying directly for the 2025 Champions Trophy.